January 2026

arXiv:2601.05245v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We prove tight lower bounds for online multicalibration, establishing an information-theoretic separation from marginal calibration. In the general setting where group functions can depend on both context and the learner’s predictions, we prove an $Omega(T^{2/3})$ lower bound on expected multicalibration error using just three disjoint binary groups. This matches the upper bounds of Noarov et al. (2025) up to logarithmic factors and exceeds the $O(T^{2/3-varepsilon})$ upper bound for marginal calibration (Dagan et al., […]

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arXiv:2601.05157v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In this work, we give a ${rm poly}(d,k)$ time and sample algorithm for efficiently learning the parameters of a mixture of $k$ spherical distributions in $d$ dimensions. Unlike all previous methods, our techniques apply to heavy-tailed distributions and include examples that do not even have finite covariances. Our method succeeds whenever the cluster distributions have a characteristic function with sufficiently heavy tails. Such distributions include the Laplace distribution but crucially exclude Gaussians. All […]

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arXiv:2601.05052v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Building efficient and effective generative models for neural network weights has been a research focus of significant interest that faces challenges posed by the high-dimensional weight spaces of modern neural networks and their symmetries. Several prior generative models are limited to generating partial neural network weights, particularly for larger models, such as ResNet and ViT. Those that do generate complete weights struggle with generation speed or require finetuning of the generated models. In […]

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arXiv:2601.04673v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Estimating causal effects from observational data remains a fundamental challenge in causal inference, especially in the presence of latent confounders. This paper focuses on estimating causal effects in Gaussian Linear Structural Causal Models (GL-SCMs), which are widely used due to their analytical tractability. However, parameter estimation in GL-SCMs is often infeasible with finite data, primarily due to overparameterization. To address this, we introduce the class of Centralized Gaussian Linear SCMs (CGL-SCMs), a simplified […]

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arXiv:2601.04608v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We study U.S. Treasury yield curve forecasting under distributional uncertainty and recast forecasting as an operations research and managerial decision problem. Rather than minimizing average forecast error, the forecaster selects a decision rule that minimizes worst case expected loss over an ambiguity set of forecast error distributions. To this end, we propose a distributionally robust ensemble forecasting framework that integrates parametric factor models with high dimensional nonparametric machine learning models through adaptive forecast […]

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arXiv:2601.04473v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This paper establishes convergence rates for learning elliptic pseudo-differential operators, a fundamental operator class in partial differential equations and mathematical physics. In a wavelet-Galerkin framework, we formulate learning over this class as a structured infinite-dimensional regression problem with multiscale sparsity. Building on this structure, we propose a sparse, data- and computation-efficient estimator, which leverages a novel matrix compression scheme tailored to the learning task and a nested-support strategy to balance approximation and estimation […]

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arXiv:2601.04423v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: A Multinomial Logit (MNL) model is composed of a finite universe of items $[n]={1,…, n}$, each assigned a positive weight. A query specifies an admissible subset — called a slate — and the model chooses one item from that slate with probability proportional to its weight. This query model is also known as the Plackett-Luce model or conditional sampling oracle in the literature. Although MNLs have been studied extensively, a basic computational question […]

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arXiv:2601.04378v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Feature attribution is the dominant paradigm for explaining deep neural networks. However, most existing methods only loosely reflect the model’s prediction-making process, thereby merely white-painting the black box. We argue that explanatory alignment is a key aspect of trustworthiness in prediction tasks: explanations must be directly linked to predictions, rather than serving as post-hoc rationalizations. We present model readability as a design principle enabling alignment, and PiNets as a modeling framework to pursue […]

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arXiv:2601.05227v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: I propose a novel framework that integrates stochastic differential equations (SDEs) with deep generative models to improve uncertainty quantification in machine learning applications involving structured and temporal data. This approach, termed Stochastic Latent Differential Inference (SLDI), embeds an It^o SDE in the latent space of a variational autoencoder, allowing for flexible, continuous-time modeling of uncertainty while preserving a principled mathematical foundation. The drift and diffusion terms of the SDE are parameterized by neural […]

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arXiv:2601.04365v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In evolutionary reinforcement learning tasks (ERL), agent policies are often encoded as small artificial neural networks (NERL). Such representations lack explicit modular structure, limiting behavioral interpretation. We investigate whether programmatic policies (PERL), implemented as soft, differentiable decision lists (SDDL), can match the performance of NERL. To support reproducible evaluation, we provide the first fully specified and open-source reimplementation of the classic 1992 Artificial Life (ALife) ERL testbed. We conduct a rigorous survival analysis […]

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