Learning a Stochastic Differential Equation Model of Tropical Cyclone Intensification from Reanalysis and Observational Data
Tropical cyclones are dangerous natural hazards, but their hazard is challenging to quantify directly from historical datasets due to limited dataset size and quality. Models of cyclone intensification fill this data gap by simulating huge ensembles of synthetic hurricanes based on estimates of the storm’s large scale environment. Both physics-based and statistical/ML intensification models have been developed to tackle this problem, but an open question is: can a physically reasonable and simple physics-style differential equation model of intensification […]