January 2026

arXiv:2601.08643v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In this paper, we extend the Riesz representation framework to causal inference under sample selection, where both treatment assignment and outcome observability are non-random. Formulating the problem in terms of a Riesz representer enables stable estimation and a transparent decomposition of omitted variable bias into three interpretable components: a data-identified scale factor, outcome confounding strength, and selection confounding strength. For estimation, we employ the ForestRiesz estimator, which accounts for selective outcome observability while […]

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arXiv:2601.08599v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We study the free energy for pure and mixed spherical $p$-spin models with i.i.d. disorder. In the mixed case, each $p$-interaction layer is assumed either to have regularly varying tails with exponent $alpha_p$ or to satisfy a finite $2p$-th moment condition. For the pure spherical $p$-spin model with regularly varying disorder of tail index $alpha$, we introduce a tail-adapted normalization that interpolates between the classical Gaussian scaling and the extreme-value scale, and we […]

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arXiv:2601.08447v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Spike-timing-dependent plasticity (STDP) provides a biologically-plausible learning mechanism for spiking neural networks (SNNs); however, Hebbian weight updates in architectures with recurrent connections suffer from pathological weight dynamics: unbounded growth, catastrophic forgetting, and loss of representational diversity. We propose a neuromorphic regularization scheme inspired by the synaptic homeostasis hypothesis: periodic offline phases during which external inputs are suppressed, synaptic weights undergo stochastic decay toward a homeostatic baseline, and spontaneous activity enables memory consolidation. We […]

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arXiv:2601.08316v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Deep double descent is one of the key phenomena underlying the generalization capability of deep learning models. In this study, epoch-wise double descent, which is delayed generalization following overfitting, was empirically investigated by focusing on the evolution of internal structures. Fully connected neural networks of three different sizes were trained on the CIFAR-10 dataset with 30% label noise. By decomposing the loss curves into signal contributions from clean and noisy training data, the […]

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arXiv:2601.07979v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Although extensive research exists in spatial modeling, few studies have addressed finite mixture model-based clustering methods for spatial data. Finite mixture models, especially Gaussian mixture models, particularly suffer from high dimensionality due to the number of free covariance parameters. This study introduces a spatial covariance constraint for Gaussian mixture models that requires only four free parameters for each component, independent of dimensionality. Using a coordinate system, the spatially constrained Gaussian mixture model enables […]

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arXiv:2601.08784v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Machine Learning algorithms are ubiquitous in key decision-making contexts such as justice, healthcare and finance, which has spawned a great demand for fairness in these procedures. However, the theoretical properties of such models in relation with fairness are still poorly understood, and the intuition behind the relationship between group and individual fairness is still lacking. In this paper, we provide a theoretical framework based on Sheaf Diffusion to leverage tools based on dynamical […]

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arXiv:2601.08618v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Multiple binary responses arise in many modern data-analytic problems. Although fitting separate logistic regressions for each response is computationally attractive, it ignores shared structure and can be statistically inefficient, especially in high-dimensional and class-imbalanced regimes. Low-rank models offer a natural way to encode latent dependence across tasks, but existing methods for binary data are largely likelihood-based and focus on pointwise classification rather than ranking performance. In this work, we propose a unified framework […]

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arXiv:2601.08236v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: This work introduces a novel technique, named structural dimension reduction, to collapse a Bayesian network onto a minimum and localized one while ensuring that probabilistic inferences between the original and reduced networks remain consistent. To this end, we propose a new combinatorial structure in directed acyclic graphs called the directed convex hull, which has turned out to be equivalent to their minimum localized Bayesian networks. An efficient polynomial-time algorithm is devised to identify […]

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arXiv:2601.08100v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Understanding the generalization behavior of deep neural networks remains a fundamental challenge in modern statistical learning theory. Among existing approaches, PAC-Bayesian norm-based bounds have demonstrated particular promise due to their data-dependent nature and their ability to capture algorithmic and geometric properties of learned models. However, most existing results rely on isotropic Gaussian posteriors, heavy use of spectral-norm concentration for weight perturbations, and largely architecture-agnostic analyses, which together limit both the tightness and practical […]

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arXiv:2601.07944v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Since the turn of the century, approximate Bayesian inference has steadily evolved as new computational techniques have been incorporated to handle increasingly complex and large-scale predictive problems. The recent success of deep neural networks and foundation models has now given rise to a new paradigm in statistical modeling, in which Bayesian inference can be amortized through large-scale learned predictors. In amortized inference, substantial computation is invested upfront to train a neural network that […]

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