January 2026

arXiv:2505.12129v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We introduce the first graph kernels for metric graphs via tropical algebraic geometry. In contrast to conventional graph kernels based on graph combinatorics such as nodes, edges, and subgraphs, our metric graph kernels are purely based on the geometry and topology of the underlying metric space. A key characterizing property of our construction is its invariance under edge subdivision, making the kernels intrinsically well-suited for comparing graphs representing different underlying metric spaces. We […]

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arXiv:2505.03797v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Partial Bayesian neural networks (pBNNs) have been shown to perform competitively with fully Bayesian neural networks while only having a subset of the parameters be stochastic. Using sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers as the inference method for pBNNs gives a non-parametric probabilistic estimation of the stochastic parameters, and has shown improved performance over parametric methods. In this paper we introduce a new SMC-based training method for pBNNs by utilising a guided proposal and […]

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arXiv:2504.02627v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are a powerful but computationally expensive way of performing non-parametric Bayesian inference. MCMC proposals which utilise gradients, such as Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC), can better explore the parameter space of interest if the additional hyper-parameters are chosen well. The No-U-Turn Sampler (NUTS) is a variant of HMC which is extremely effective at selecting these hyper-parameters but is slow to run and is not suited to GPU architectures. […]

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arXiv:2503.03990v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Accurately quantifying air-sea fluxes is important for understanding air-sea interactions and improving coupled weather and climate systems. This study introduces a probabilistic framework to represent the highly variable nature of air-sea fluxes, which is missing in deterministic bulk algorithms. Assuming Gaussian distributions conditioned on the input variables, we use artificial neural networks and eddy-covariance measurement data to estimate the mean and variance by minimizing negative log-likelihood loss. The trained neural networks provide alternative […]

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arXiv:2411.08390v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Computing expected information gain (EIG) from prior to posterior (equivalently, mutual information between candidate observations and model parameters or other quantities of interest) is a fundamental challenge in Bayesian optimal experimental design. We formulate flexible transport-based schemes for EIG estimation in general nonlinear/non-Gaussian settings, compatible with both standard and implicit Bayesian models. These schemes are representative of two-stage methods for estimating or bounding EIG using marginal and conditional density estimates. In this setting, […]

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arXiv:2407.11823v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The United States Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA’s) 510(k) pathway allows manufacturers to gain medical device approval by demonstrating substantial equivalence to a legally marketed device. However, the inherent ambiguity of this regulatory procedure has been associated with high recall among many devices cleared through this pathway, raising significant safety concerns. In this paper, we develop a combined human-algorithm approach to assist the FDA in improving its 510(k) medical device clearance process by […]

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arXiv:2403.15711v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Causal representation learning (CRL) offers the promise of uncovering the underlying causal model by which observed data was generated, but the practical applicability of existing methods remains limited by the strong assumptions required for identifiability and by challenges in applying them to real-world settings. Most current approaches are applicable only to relatively restrictive model classes, such as linear or polynomial models, which limits their flexibility and robustness in practice. One promising approach to […]

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arXiv:2402.04177v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Scaling laws provide important insights that can guide the design of large language models (LLMs). Existing work has primarily focused on studying scaling laws for pretraining (upstream) loss. However, in transfer learning settings, in which LLMs are pretrained on an unsupervised dataset and then finetuned on a downstream task, we often also care about the downstream performance. In this work, we study the scaling behavior in a transfer learning setting, where LLMs are […]

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arXiv:2312.08410v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We introduce a Banach space-valued extension of random feature learning, a data-driven supervised machine learning technique for large-scale kernel approximation. By randomly initializing the feature maps, only the linear readout needs to be trained, which reduces the computational complexity substantially. Viewing random feature models as Banach space-valued random variables, we prove a universal approximation result in the corresponding Bochner space. Moreover, we derive approximation rates and an explicit algorithm to learn an element […]

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arXiv:2302.07198v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Training deep learning neural networks often requires massive amounts of computational ressources. We propose to sequentially monitor network predictions to trigger retraining only if the predictions are no longer valid. This can reduce drastically computational costs and opens a door to green deep learning. Our approach is based on the relationship to projected second moments monitoring, a problem also arising in other areas such as computational finance. Various open–end as well as closed–end […]

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