January 2026

arXiv:2510.19672v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Policy learning algorithms are widely used in areas such as personalized medicine and advertising to develop individualized treatment regimes. However, most methods force a decision even when predictions are uncertain, which is risky in high-stakes settings. We study policy learning with abstention, where a policy may defer to a safe default or an expert. When a policy abstains, it receives a small additive reward on top of the value of a random guess. […]

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arXiv:2510.07132v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Clustered Federated Learning (CFL) improves performance under non-IID client heterogeneity by clustering clients and training one model per cluster, thereby balancing between a global model and fully personalized models. However, most CFL methods require the number of clusters K to be fixed a priori, which is impractical when the latent structure is unknown. We propose DPMM-CFL, a CFL algorithm that places a Dirichlet Process (DP) prior over the distribution of cluster parameters. This […]

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arXiv:2509.21547v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Learning, whether natural or artificial, is a process of selection. It starts with a set of candidate options and selects the more successful ones. In the case of machine learning the selection is done based on empirical estimates of prediction accuracy of candidate prediction rules on some data. Due to randomness of data sampling the empirical estimates are inherently noisy, leading to selection under uncertainty. The book provides statistical tools to obtain theoretical […]

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arXiv:2509.11907v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: In this work, we consider the problem of identifying an unknown linear dynamical system given a finite hypothesis class. In particular, we analyze the effect of the excitation input on the sample complexity of identifying the true system with high probability. To this end, we present sample complexity lower bounds that capture the choice of the selected excitation input. The sample complexity lower bound gives rise to a system theoretic condition to determine […]

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arXiv:2507.04490v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Contextual anomaly detection (CAD) aims to identify anomalies in a target (behavioral) variable conditioned on a set of contextual variables that influence the normalcy of the target variable but are not themselves indicators of anomaly. In many anomaly detection tasks, there exist contextual variables that influence the normalcy of the target variable but are not themselves indicators of anomaly. In this work, we propose a novel framework for CAD, normalcy score (NS), that […]

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arXiv:2505.18269v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We study the problem of selecting a subset from a large action space shared by a family of bandits, with the goal of achieving performance nearly matching that of using the full action space. Indeed, in many natural situations, while the nominal set of actions may be large, there also exist significant correlations between the rewards of different actions. In this paper we propose an algorithm that can significantly reduce the action space […]

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arXiv:2505.12129v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We introduce the first graph kernels for metric graphs via tropical algebraic geometry. In contrast to conventional graph kernels based on graph combinatorics such as nodes, edges, and subgraphs, our metric graph kernels are purely based on the geometry and topology of the underlying metric space. A key characterizing property of our construction is its invariance under edge subdivision, making the kernels intrinsically well-suited for comparing graphs representing different underlying metric spaces. We […]

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arXiv:2505.03797v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Partial Bayesian neural networks (pBNNs) have been shown to perform competitively with fully Bayesian neural networks while only having a subset of the parameters be stochastic. Using sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers as the inference method for pBNNs gives a non-parametric probabilistic estimation of the stochastic parameters, and has shown improved performance over parametric methods. In this paper we introduce a new SMC-based training method for pBNNs by utilising a guided proposal and […]

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arXiv:2504.02627v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are a powerful but computationally expensive way of performing non-parametric Bayesian inference. MCMC proposals which utilise gradients, such as Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC), can better explore the parameter space of interest if the additional hyper-parameters are chosen well. The No-U-Turn Sampler (NUTS) is a variant of HMC which is extremely effective at selecting these hyper-parameters but is slow to run and is not suited to GPU architectures. […]

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arXiv:2503.03990v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Accurately quantifying air-sea fluxes is important for understanding air-sea interactions and improving coupled weather and climate systems. This study introduces a probabilistic framework to represent the highly variable nature of air-sea fluxes, which is missing in deterministic bulk algorithms. Assuming Gaussian distributions conditioned on the input variables, we use artificial neural networks and eddy-covariance measurement data to estimate the mean and variance by minimizing negative log-likelihood loss. The trained neural networks provide alternative […]

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